Is solitaire luck or skill? We measured it, game by game
Data
When you lose a game of solitaire, was it the cards or you? The same players win 7.2% of random Russian Solitaire deals and 61.9% of deals known to be winnable. In FreeCell, a winnable deal makes no difference at all. Here is the answer for every game.
Solitaire is often called a game of luck, and just as often a game of skill. Both are right, but not for the same games. In some, most deals can't be won however well you play. In others, nearly every deal has a way through, and a loss means a missed move. Three weeks ago we counted how often people win each game, and two weeks ago we let a solver work out how many deals can be won at all.
This week we put the two together, with a test our players have been running without knowing it. The answer, from 16,617,899 games: in Russian Solitaire and Scorpion Solitaire, the deal decides most games. In FreeCell Solitaire and Spider, you do. Klondike, Yukon and Alaska are in between.
The test: the same players, two kinds of deal
When you start a game on Solitaire Land, you can choose Random, a deal nobody picked, or Winnable, a deal that somebody has already won. A winnable deal takes the bad luck out: there is certainly a way through. So the gap between the two win rates shows how much the deal itself decides. Whatever is left between the winnable win rate and 100% is up to the player.
People who choose winnable deals might be better or worse players than the rest, so we didn't compare different people. We took only the players who have played at least 10 games of each kind in the same game, and compared each group with itself.
- Random deals
- Winnable deals
The hollow dot is the win rate on random deals, the filled dot on winnable deals. The longer the line between them, the more the deal decides. The same numbers are in the table further down.
Russian Solitaire and Scorpion: the deal decides
The same 171 players win 7.2% of their random Russian Solitaire deals and 61.9% of their winnable ones: 8.6 times as often. In Scorpion Solitaire, 40 players go from 10.6% to 68.9%, and across all players the jump is just as big (13.9% to 69.1%).
The solver explains why. It proved that 93.0% of Russian Solitaire deals and 57.5% of Scorpion deals can't be won, from the very first move. In these games most losses are not mistakes. If you want a fair fight, choose Winnable: then it is up to you again, and you will probably win more than half of your games.
Klondike, Yukon and Alaska: a bit of both
In Yukon Solitaire, a winnable deal lifts the same players from 23.1% to 43.6%. In Alaska Solitaire it is 22.3% to 36.5%, in Klondike with three cards 16.6% to 28.6%, and in Klondike with one card 43.0% to 51.0%. The deal matters, but far less than in Russian Solitaire.
Now look at where the filled dots sit: even on a deal that is certainly winnable, these players lose most of their Yukon, Alaska and three-card Klondike games. That part is skill, or patience. Alaska is the clearest case. At least 73% of its deals can be won, yet players win 36.5% of the deals that are known to be winnable. If you want a game where getting better really shows, try Alaska.
FreeCell and Spider: it's all you
In FreeCell Solitaire and Spider, a winnable deal doesn't help at all. The same players win 72.9% of random FreeCell deals and 65.4% of winnable ones. In Spider Solitaire 2 Suits it is 32.0% and 31.3%, in Spider Solitaire 4 Suits 19.5% and 17.6%. The small differences go both ways.
The reason: almost every deal of these games can be won anyway. Players have won 99.9% of the FreeCell deals they tried, and 95.3% even in four-suit Spider. A winnable deal is just another deal. (In FreeCell the winnable ones are even won a little less often. That comes from when people choose them: 48.1% of these players' winnable games come right after a loss, against 22.3% of their random games, and after a loss everyone wins less. Right after a loss they win 53.0% of winnable deals and 52.5% of random ones, about the same.) So when a FreeCell or Spider game is lost, the way through was almost certainly there. Undo a few moves and look again.
Luck, game by game
Players compared are the players who played at least 10 random and 10 winnable deals of that game. The difference is in percentage points: how much the same players' win rate goes up when the deal is certainly winnable.
| Game | Players compared | Random deals | Winnable deals | Difference (points) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scorpion Solitaire | 40 | 10.6% | 68.9% | +58.3 |
| Russian Solitaire | 171 | 7.2% | 61.9% | +54.7 |
| Yukon Solitaire | 66 | 23.1% | 43.6% | +20.5 |
| Alaska Solitaire | 121 | 22.3% | 36.5% | +14.2 |
| Klondike Solitaire 3 Cards | 109 | 16.6% | 28.6% | +12.0 |
| Klondike Solitaire 1 Card | 531 | 43.0% | 51.0% | +8.0 |
| Spider Solitaire 1 Suit | 68 | 69.7% | 74.8% | +5.1 |
| Spider Solitaire 2 Suits | 182 | 32.0% | 31.3% | −0.7 |
| Spider Solitaire 4 Suits | 142 | 19.5% | 17.6% | −1.9 |
| FreeCell Solitaire | 440 | 72.9% | 65.4% | −7.5 |
Every game at a glance
Deals that can be won combines three sources: what our players have won (random deals played at least five times), what our solver solved or proved lost on 200 deals per game, and, for Klondike, the much bigger search by Blake and Gent at the University of St Andrews. A range means the true share lies somewhere in between. Typical player is the median win rate of the players with at least 20 games of that game, every kind of deal included.
| Game | Deals that can be won | Games played | Win rate | Typical player | Typical winning time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FreeCell Solitaire | 99.9–100% | 6,423,307 | 70.3% | 69.0% | 2:59 |
| Klondike Solitaire 1 Card | 85.2–90% | 4,485,226 | 46.2% | 44.7% | 3:06 |
| Spider Solitaire 2 Suits | 98.2–100% | 1,865,508 | 37.1% | 35.3% | 8:05 |
| Spider Solitaire 4 Suits | 95.3–100% | 1,285,829 | 18.4% | 11.1% | 16:08 |
| Spider Solitaire 1 Suit | 99.9–100% | 851,512 | 79.6% | 84.0% | 5:00 |
| Klondike Solitaire 3 Cards | 53.6–82% | 733,625 | 20.4% | 17.9% | 2:55 |
| Russian Solitaire | about 7% | 504,181 | 22.3% | 30.8% | 2:41 |
| Yukon Solitaire | 75–100% | 255,460 | 27.5% | 22.5% | 3:48 |
| Alaska Solitaire | 73–89.5% | 90,379 | 24.5% | 34.4% | 2:46 |
| Scorpion Solitaire | about 45% | 50,710 | 23.7% | 34.1% | 3:08 |
| Tripeaks Solitaire | 93.5–100% | 29,677 | 59.3% | 62.6% | 1:11 |
The win rate and the typical player don't always agree. In Russian Solitaire, the typical player wins 30.8% of their games, far more than the 7.3% of random deals that are won, because many regular players have found the Winnable button.
A few players play most of the games
The numbers show one more thing: a small group plays most of the games. 807 players with more than 1,000 games each played 67% of all FreeCell games. FreeCell has 28,516 players in all. So a game's overall win rate mostly describes its regulars.
That's why the table also shows the typical player. For most games the two are close. In four-suit Spider they are not: the typical player wins 11.1% of their games, about one in 9, while all games together are won 18.4% of the time, because the regulars who play the most are better at it.
How we measured
- Every game finished on Solitaire Land from April 2024 to 25 October 2026: 16,617,899 games, 8,600,402 of them won. A game counts once a move has been made and when it ends: won, given up or stuck. Daily challenges and levels are in the totals but not in the comparison.
- A player is one browser or device: we don't know who is behind it. Someone who plays on a phone and on a laptop counts twice; a shared computer counts once.
- Random deals are the ones a new game gives you. Winnable deals are picked from the deals somebody has won on Solitaire Land, so each one certainly has a way through.
- The comparison takes the players with at least 10 games of each kind in that game and adds up their games. Tripeaks is left out: only 11 players have played enough of both.
- How many deals can be won: our solver plays a deal with every card face up and tries up to 150,000 positions. It ends with solved (a win found, then checked move by move by the game's own rules), proven lost (every reachable position tried, none wins) or not settled (it ran out of positions). The deals it couldn't settle are why some ranges are wide: in Klondike and Spider the positions multiply too fast. How the solver works.
- Typical winning times are the medians of won games, every kind of deal included.
What these numbers can't tell you
- Players choose when to play a winnable deal. Comparing each group with itself takes out who they are, but not when they choose it: perhaps after a frustrating loss, or when they have more time.
- A few heavy players weigh a lot in the totals. Some comparison groups are small (40 players in Scorpion, 68 in Spider with one suit), so read those rows with care.
- The solver looked at 200 deals per game and the players' figures come from other deals, so in Russian Solitaire and Scorpion the two differ by a few points. We give one rounded figure there.
- Every winnable deal has been won by a person, which may make them a little easier than a deal that is only winnable in theory.
In short
- Russian Solitaire is mostly luck: the same players win 7.2% of random deals and 61.9% of winnable ones, 8.6 times as often.
- Scorpion too: 10.6% of random deals won, 68.9% of winnable ones.
- FreeCell and Spider are skill: almost every deal can be won, and a winnable deal makes no difference.
- Klondike, Yukon and Alaska are a bit of both: the deal matters, but even on winnable deals most games of Yukon, Alaska and three-card Klondike are lost.
- The typical four-suit Spider player wins about one game in 9; the typical FreeCell player wins 69.0%.
Next time you lose, think about which game you were playing. In Russian Solitaire, shrug and deal again. In FreeCell, press undo: the way through was there.
